Ch 2

Ch. 2. Thinking Machines

1. The Twilight Zone: "The Lonely" Corry falls in love with Alicia (robot) who is shot "All you leave behind is loneliness."
2. Search for intelligent life in the universe
1. sci-fi, alien > rational & goalseeker
2. def for intelligence = ability to attain goals in the face of obstacles by means of decisions based on rational (truth-obeying) rules
   

Ch 1

Ch. 1. Standard Equipment

1. robot vs human; in a well designed system the components are black boxes

• the robot challenge: 1) visual system light/dark > shapes > objects, 3D>2D, rotation etc... reverse optics is ill posed, impossible yet we do it all the time IN REAL TIME! constant deadlines
• 2) movement: reverse kinematics and reverse dynamics; no animal has evolved to have wheels; legs; 6 legs > 4 legs still stable but 2 legs! unstable !!! yet we do it
• cannot treat everything as unique > categories; e.g. "bachelor"
  
• common sense is very hard to code into a machine
• Isaac Asimov's Fundamental Rules of Robotics: must program the machine to sustain itself
• emotions: self protection, care, love, agression must all be programmed
• visual areas of the brain can be damaged resulting in different perception 1) paying attention to only half of the visual field 2) everything grey and dim 3) see objects but not movement 4) cannot identify objects or faces
• identical twins reared apart: 1) entering the water backwards! 2) leaving little love notes for their wives ! etc.. 3) sneezing loudly in crowded elevators for fun !!! 4) flush the toilet before and after use !
• reverse engineering the psyche: AGENDA OF THE BOOK = The mind is a system of organs of computation, designed by natural selection to solve the kinds of problems our ancestors faced in their foraging way of life, in particular, understanding and outmaneuvering objects, animals, plants and other people.

• >>>computational theory of mind
• >>>evolutionary psychology
  
• Tooby and Cosmides < has been opposed, the mind should not be treated as evolutionary development but rather as culture
  
• >>> the common is really uncommon
• >>> brain is evolutionary != cultural development
• pregnancy sickness evidence that it is selected for > protects the embrio
• nature vs nurture debate is quite meaningless
  
• evolutionary doesn't mean human = ape or whale = cow, we do want to get to the differences
• behavior did not evolve, the mind did!
• Psychological correctness
• Standard Social Science Model SSSM > bad, except maybe that allowed some bad moral judgments to be eradicated; SSSM = fundamental division between biology and culture
• must separate science from morals
• 3 implications of innate human nature:
1. innate human nature implies innate human differences
1. Gloria Steinem: "There are really not many jobs that actually require a penis or a vagina, and all the other occupations should be open to everyone."
   
2. naturalistic fallacy: natural > good (even war, crimes etc)
3. genes control behavior: no responsibility for our actions

• confusion between goals of genes' (spreading themselves) and our goals (whatever our minds dictate: health, love, friends, work, maybe children)
  

Hist A-12 Wk 1

WEEK 1: ANALYZING INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: THEORIES AND EVIDENCE
(113 PAGES)
* Kenneth Waltz, Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis, pp.159-186, 224-238.
⊗ Robert Jervis, “War and Misperception,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History, vol. 18, no. 4 (1988), pp. 675-700.
⊗ Stephen Walt, One World, Many Theories,” Foreign Policy (Spring) 1998:29-46.


Joseph Nye, “Counterfactuals,” in Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History (1st ed.), pp. 42-45.

• Questions: How do we think about history and IR?
• Intl politics is NOT lab science, no controlled experiments
• too many causes, but which is more important than the others?
• >> mental experiment = COUNTERFACTUALS
  
• to determine clausal claims
  
• examples:

1. imagine the kaiser had not fired Bismarck in 1890 > his policies continue > Germany less threatening > WWI less likely?
2. Franz Ferdinand's driver takes a left instead of right > WWI would have started or not? the role of the accidental

• dangers: history is path dependent
• four criteria for goodness and usefulness:

1. Plausability: cotenability: had Napoleon used bombs he would have won XXX useless
   
2. Proximity: long chain of causation: Cleopatra's nose caused WWI > too far. Keep the events close to each other
   
3. Theory: what theories support it: e.g. Cold War was caused by what? 1) ideological causation or 2) balance of power theory IF US communist (or USSR capitalist) would it still have happened? Prolly yes. See communist countries fighting each other
   
4. Facts: only change one thing at a time. Ceteris paribus
   

• In sum: purists are against counterfactuals: just write down what actually happened, but for analysis CFs are useful bc we can think about the WHYs.
  

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, "Evaluating Arguments about International Politics," in Principles of International Politics: People's Power, Preferences and Perceptions (Second Edition), pp. 51-72.

In summary, this is (the first half of) Ch. 2. - importance of using theories, how to evaluate whether a theory is good or bad, how to compare two theories, case studies, wing walking principle > SCIENTIFIC METHOD

1. Theory = simplification of reality
1. history = description of reality vs. theory = prospective explanations of reality ! NICE
2. assumption != hypothesis
3. such thing as looking at "just the facts" doesn't exist: even selection of facts is shaped by theory: discourages the purist view
4. what facts to choose: WWI ?<>
5. WHAT IS THEORY
1. statements about the expected relationships between variables
   
2. e.g. arms race: independent variables: perceived threat and demand for goods (guns vs butter ???) will affect dependent variables: arms expenditures, likelihood that countries will fight a war! (SEE Athens and Sparta, and Europe in the XVIIIth century /SEE)
3. logic > relationship of variables > predictions
   
6. CONSTRUCTING THEORIES
1. assumptions = building blocks, define domain where the theory will be useful (subjective choice)
2. e.g. neorealism assumes that states are unitary actors
3. principle of parsimony the fewer assumptions used to explain the larger amount of events or facts, the more useful the theory (better???)
   
7. Judging theories
• consistent = assumptions don't contradict each other
1. Hans Morgenthau - perhaps the most influential IR theorist of the past several decades: status quo vs. imperialist state - but we know only after the fact + he says that all states pursue power at all cost CONTRADICTION
2. revised: status quo vs. imperialists > doesn't describe reality > I DISAGREE I think it is perfect: one imperial state or many status quo states - that are in contact, that is
3. Assumption in the box: can we go through? status quo states are willing to tolerate lower costs than imperial states (lower costs of what?) p.58.
   
• accuracy of empirical predictions
• value judgment != logical evidence
• doesn't ignore unpleasant or inconvenient realities
• TRUTH AND FALSITY IN ASSUMPTIONS
1. assumptions are through which theorists simplify
2. unitary actor
   
3. theory is true or false whether predictions come from its assumptions or not
   
8. first principle of wing walking
• cost of switch >?<>
• if you are on an airplane wing, don't let go until you are damn sure that the new thing to hold on to is better
• e.g.: Ptolemy > Kepler/Newton > Einstein; MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) >? ... Edward Teller's SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative)
  
9. case study method and testing theories
• selection bias and hindsight must be avoided
  
10. standard for comparing theories
11. (why do we need theories?)
    

Sc B-62 Wk 2

Tuesday, February 5 & Thursday, February 7: Major Approaches.
Psychoanalysis (Freud); Behaviorism (Skinner). Components of the modern
approach: Cognition; computation; neuroscience; evolution.
Gray: Chapter 1; Chapter 2; Chapter 15, pp. 558-563; Chapter 3, pp. 59-62;
Chapter 17, pp. 632-637, 649-653; Chapter 4, pp. 91-117, 124-131.
(HTMW: Chapter 1, pp. 21-44; 2, pp. 59-69.)
*First mini-assignment will be handed out on Thursday.

Gray: Chapter 1;

Chapter 2;

• e.g. 1. Clever Hans, horse answering questions
  
• e.g. 2. Alberto DiMascio, treatments for depression
• e.g. 3. Diana Baumrind: correlational method of the rel btw parents' disciplinary styles and childrens' development
  
• Research Designs (Descriptive studies, correlational studies, and experiments)
• Research Settings (field, laboratory)
• Data-Collection Methods (self-report, observation)
• the above three combine to 3 x 2 x 2 = 12 kinds of studies
  

Chapter 15, pp. 558-563;


Chapter 3, pp. 59-62;


Chapter 17, pp. 632-637, 649-653;


Chapter 4, pp. 91-117, 124-131.

(HTMW: Chapter 1, pp. 21-44; 2, pp. 59-69.)


*First mini-assignment will be handed out on Thursday.